Le’ Notes #20: Heuristics and biases

This post serves as an introduction to the heuristics and biases school (HB) and how it might be applied in assessing war decisions.

One of the features of the naturalistic decision-making (NDM) school is their belief that people can be trained to make better decisions by becoming experts and developing better mental models. The rationalistic school already assumes that people are similar to robots, i.e. they make sound, rational judgments based on the availability of information at that given time.

However, the HB school would beg to differ. People are inherently biased in making decisions, mostly due to their reliance on intuition, which stems from a number of heuristics that we have developed as a part of the evolutionary process.

Continue reading “Le’ Notes #20: Heuristics and biases”

Le’ Notes #18: Naturalistic decision making, part 1

This post departs from the rationalistic school to the naturalistic school of decision-making, where assumptions of rationality are thrown out of the window.

We’ve discussed at length about rational choice theory (Part 1 and Part 2). So far, I’ve come to the conclusion that rational choice theory is┬ákind of detached from reality and tends to ignore the small things that make us human such as our habits, culture, etc.

Now, we visit the naturalistic decision-making (NDM) school that has a different set of core assumptions. Also known as “recognition-primed decision-making” (RPD for short), this school of decision-making believes that the rationalistic approach does not hold when humans are observed in a “natural” setting, such as in a real crisis or actual wartime setting.

Continue reading “Le’ Notes #18: Naturalistic decision making, part 1”

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